SCIENCE UPDATE: Solving the Mystery Airheads

note: this article is sketch science on a real experiment.
DEAL, NJ -- What started out as a twitter argument between Isaac Gartenberg and Dorothy Newman soon became the largest study of its kind. The question was simple: are Mystery White Airheads a random, uncolored Airhead, or are they a flavor of their own? No data exists on the subject. Hillel Update Labs assembled three test subjects for a blind taste test in order to solve the mystery. Student Council refused to fund the study (with a total cost of $4) on the ground that spending the small amount would be "unethical." The participants instead funded their own experiment, citing it as "science l'shma."



THE HYPOTHESIS
Perfetti Van Melle, the company responsible for producing the candy, is very shady on the flavor of Mystery White. Different theories exist. Hillel Update Labs set out to answer the question. The theory tested is whether the Mystery White wrappers contain a different flavor of colorless Airhead each time -- hence the mystery. However, the most basic and plausible theory is that it is simply a flavor of its own. This theory gains credibility in that it follows with Occams Razor: the most basic theory is generally true. Producing and wrapping both colored and uncolored versions of each flavor would likely make production costs skyrocket as compared to the cost effectiveness of simply producing a sixth variety. Additionally, the human mind tends to pick up on patterns where there are none -- detecting false traces of other flavors due to common ingredients such as Sugar and Citric Acid. It is predicted that more research will be necessary.



THE EXPERIMENT
The test was rather basic. The participants -- Gartenberg, Newman and the neutral Jason Gindi -- would shield there eyes and eat a piece of an airhead given to them by the researchers. Ten airheads -- one of each standard flavor and 5 Mystery White bars -- were used in the experiment. The participants would then identify the sample as one of the five flavors, or state that they cannot identify the flavor.

Two participants and their wrappers after the fact.

THE PROCESS (this part has a lot of big science words)

This study is the first of its kind. Nowhere else exists data for either theory. Though only ten bars were tested among three tasters, Hillel Update Labs hopes to expand the test at a later date if the evidence seems to lead somewhere. For the purpose of this study, the term majoritively will imply a 2/3 agreement on the fact. An agreement of at least 66.7% is considered scientifically significant. Conclusively will imply a fact with an error margin of .1 (or 90% agreement). Anything with 90% agreement can be used for conclusions. There are a few facts which the data will determine:

1. The standard flavors can majoritively be identified and differentiated from one another. (If the flavors cannot be majoritively identified and differentiated, then the data is faulty and the test is invalid).
2. If they are majoritively identified as standard flavors it lends credibility to the Random Flavor Theory. If they are majoritively unidentified it lends credibility to the Sixth Variety Theory. If there is no majority more research is necessary.
3. If the individual mystery bars are majoritively identified as specific majoritive flavors, and the individual bars vary in majoritive flavors, the data rules in favor of the Random Flavor Theory. If the individual bars are identified as the same majoritive flavor, the data rules in favor of the Sixth Variety Theory. If the set of bars does not marjoritively a trend of majoritive flavors, more research is necessary.
4. Any data which rules conclusively will be viewed with appropriate weight.

If the same result is supported by points 2 and 3 it can be, for the time being, concluded that a specific theory is correct.

EASY VERSION: 

1) Do people know what the real flavors are? 

2) Do people think the mystery are real flavors?

3) Does everyone agree on which mystery is which flavor?

THE DATA

Test data

FIRST SET: Identifying standard flavors

• Blue Raspberry was majoritively identified correctly.
• Pink Lemonade was conclusively and majoritively identified correctly.
• Watermelon was majoritively identified correctly.
• Orange was conclusively and majoritively identified correctly.
• Cherry was conclusively and majoritively identified correctly.

ANALYSIS: Standard flavors can be identified and differentiated. The data is valid. 

SECOND SET: Identifying mystery bar samples as standard flavors.

• The mystery bar samples were not majoritively identified as standard flavors.
• The mystery bar samples were not majoritively unidentifiable.

ANALYSIS: Though 60% of the mystery bars samples were identified as standard flavors, it does not achieve a 2/3 majority necessary for conclusion.

THIRD SET

• Mystery Bar 1 was majoritively identified as Cherry.
• Mystery Bar 2 was majoritively identified  as Watermelon.
• Mystery Bar 3 was majoritively unidentified.
• Mystery Bar 4 was majoritively unidentified.
• Mystery Bar 5 was majoritively identified as Blue Raspberry.

ANALYSIS: Though 60% of the mystery bars were individually identified as specific flavors, it does not achieve a 2/3 majority necessary for conclusion. 

THE CONCLUSION

The foremost conclusion is that more research is necessary. The data was valid but more trials must be conducted with a wider range or participants. The data sets rule 60% in favor of the Random Flavor Theory. According to Hillel Update Labs this 60% is not scientifically significant. Another trial with the same participants or perhaps a slightly larger pool of participants may see the number 60% shift up or down slightly. If a further test sees at least a 66.7% agreement towards the Random Flavor Theory, the results will be scientifically significant and a much larger test will be initiated to further zero in that number. If it moves closer to 50% -- the point of ambiguity -- other means of testing must be tried.

THE ANSWER

...is still just out of our grasp. The data does rule 60% in favor of the Random Flavor Theory, this is not a significant percentage and may be a function of the large error margin. The Sixth Variety Theory still has advantages in terms of simplicity, and a 40% share of the data. As for Isaac and Dorothy, they'll have to settle their bet later, and, in the meantime, keep chomping airheads. 

THE RESEARCHER'S PERSPECTIVE

I was actually surprised with the results. I expected at least 2/3 to rule in favor of the Sixth Variety Theory. I was surprised when a 3/5 agreement found itself against that theory. I personally did not consider the Random Flavor Theory plausible but now realize that experimentation shows otherwise. But look at me still talking when there's science to do...

President's Day: Roast of Leon

DEAL, NJ: It's Presidents' Day, and boy do we have plans for our own president. Leon Ebani was going for a walk when his fellow StuCo members pulled up. Ricky Tawil invited him for a "blindfolded gushers run at BJ's" and handed him an eye mask. He climbed into Jack Alboucai's Camaro, and the three were off.

When the engine stopped, Ebani was escorted inside. He removed his blindfold and found himself not at BJ's Wholesale Club, but at the Axelrod Performing Arts Center of the abandoned JCC of Greater Monmouth. Leon noticed some of his friends and colleagues sitting on stage, with a few extra chairs. The three of them occupied the remaining seats. He knew what was going on, but looking up only confirmed it: the banner read "ROAST OF LEON."

LTR: Roastmaster Lee Matalon, President Leon Ebani,
Racecar Driver Morris Cohen, Georgian Ovadia Harary, and VP Albert's Brother.

Lee Matalon, the Roastmaster of the evening, opened the event by introducing himself and the night's corporate sponsor.

Roastmaster Lee Matalon:
Hello Leon, I'm Lee Matalon and I'll be the Roastmaster this evening. That's right -- these fine people are all here to roast you. So get ready. But before we begin, let's just acknowledge an important sponsor. This event could not have been possible without our friends at Rook Coffee Roasters. Hazak UBaruch. 

Then, the roasting began.

Roastmaster Lee Matalon:
Leon, you suck at Physics. All/All/None of you can function, but you don't even know what a function is. Maybe we should all be old people like you, or maybe we should just throw out the bad kids. There's a reason I gave you all the dud jokes for Saturday Night Update.

Before returning to his seat, the Roastmaster called up the first guest.

Ovadia Harary: 

Leon, we've always been great friends. But lets face it, I didn't come up here all the way from Jawja to congratulate you. Your progress was nice but all the real initiatives came from the Ovadia Administration. After moving down South I became President of the Confederate States of Hillel. So watch out.

Harary sat down and Leon began to bash him back. Within seconds the room was roaring.

Roastmaster Lee Matalon:
Woah woah you're starting a Rutgers!

At that, Morris Cohen took the mic and began to talk over the commotion.

Morris Cohen:
His brain might be as big as his nose, but his ego is of similar size. A day doesn't go by without him proclaiming himself president. He likes the big ones, a little too much. Love you buddy.

VP Ricky Tawil was next to ascend the podium.

Ricky Tawil:
Leon, you think you're a good president. The only thing you're good at is loading Gushers into other peoples' trunks. You're too busy with Hockey to do anything for Student Council. Thank you for giving me all my power. I wouldn't be upset if you got assassinated around election time.

Mr. Tawil returns to his seat, and the Roastmaster ascends the poduim.

Roastmaster Lee Matalon:
Thank you, Ikey. We're now going to ask members of the audience if they'd like to contribute opinions on Leon.

Freshman Zach Kassin raises his hand.

Zach Kassin:
I like him. I think he's a good president, he's a nice guy, he supports the school well, and he plays on the sports teams, and he has academics...

Roastmaster Lee Matalon:
You do know what a roast is, right?

A second audience member gives his opinion.

Leo Hanono:
Who?

At this point, another audience member stands and begins to speak.

Albert Tawil, former president:
He's a good president and everything, from what I hear. If only he were as good at ping pong as he is at politics.

Just as Leon stands up to defend himself, a dark figure bursts into the room and ascends the podium. He pulls out a few sheets of paper and begins reading.

Al Sultan:
My Toast/Roast of Leon Ebani
By rrrrAl Sultan

Leon Ebani
What can I say?
You astound me son
Each and EVERY DAY

From wrestling Chem teachers
To playing the sax
President Ebani
You take it to the max

The genius behind skyway
A fellow impracticial dahaker
You also know your Spongebob
Better than any cracker

Yet now I must roast
Leon the great
Or should I say not great haha
You fell for my bait

Feel the burn of this roast!
Be filled with fear
This poem is far from over
Insert urology joke here

I guess it’s on now!
The roasting has begun
You’re worse at being president
Than Cheney is with a gun

Ouch! That’s a rough one
But I just went there
Your presidency is about as real
As Donald Trump’s hair

Well I’m all out of rhymes
I guess this is the end
But seriously Leon you’re the best
And you are one awesome friend (:

The Roastmaster begins the closing ceremonies...

Roastmaster Lee Matalon:
We hope you enjoyed the evening. Dinner will be served shortly. We'd like to thank everyone who made it out here tonight—

...when a very mean guest rudely interrupts.

Uninvited Chemistry Teacher:
Just STOP! 
What is WRONG with you?!

EXCLUSIVE: An Interview With Uriya Teherani

DEAL, NJ -- He's the kid who struck it rich selling soda. He's the National Foosball League World Champion. He's a world class photographer. But do we really know who Uriya Teherani is? The Hillel Update had made a mission of finding out. Now, for the first time ever, Uriya's interview will be shared with the public.

Hillel Update: We're here with Uriya "Uriya2014" Teherani, over lunch for an interview. Uriya, say hi to the audience.
Uriya Teherani: Hey whats up
HU: We're just going to ask you a couple of questions. So, your Instagram account is pretty popular. What led you to launch the Instagram account?
UT: Actually, once I got my iPhone 5 I wanted to do it. I saw that everyone else was on it every second of the day, so I figured why not.
HU: And your weekly Shabbat Shalom pictures. Where do you get them from?
UT: I just look it up, on Google Images. Sometimes I find it in, like, different kinds of places.
HU: Many might remember you from the soda-selling days, but you recently got out of that business. Do you have any regrets?
UT: What do you mean?
HU: Do you regret getting out of the soda business?
UT: Yeah, I guess. I didn't have a choice. They came to me and said 'you have to stop selling.' I would be selling now if they didn't stop me.
HU: So is the amount of money you made selling soda over the years -- is that a public number? Or is it private?
UT: Um... I guess I made... I made over, like, five grand.
HU: $5000?!
UT: I made like $40 a day.
HU: Other students might remember you for your amazing Foosball skills. How'd you do it? Did you practice?
UT: Actually, in Israel, my uncles had a Foosball table at home. They were so good -- they played so well -- they actually broke the people. The way they spin it, they actually broke the peoples' heads when they tried to play.
HU: And that's where you got your practice, from an early age?
UT: Yeah. I'm getting this story, like, every day. (?)
HU: If you could be one person from the Torah, who would you be?
UT: ...that's a great question, that's a great question. (pause) I don't know.
HU: Let me rephrase it. If you could MEET one person, who would it be?
UT: Adam. I guess. It's like saying, 'if you could meet one person from history, who would it be?'
HU: Ok, you tell me. If you could meet one person from history, who would it be?
UT: ...honestly, I'd want to show Hitler how he messed up. How everything he lived for failed.
HU: So you'd meet Hitler and tell him where he went wrong. It's very deep and very interesting. Never thought about it.
UT: I'm in Holocaust [Literature class] so I think about these things.
HU: Many students wonder what makes you so awesome. Do you have a secret?
UT: Not really. I hang out with everyone, not just a specific group of people. I try to make it to special events in school.
Isaac Tawil: Do you want to go to Dean's after lunch?
HU: Isaac Tawil, Uriya's being interviewed for the Hillel Update. Please say Hi for the interview.
IT: Is he actually being interviewed?
HU: Yes.
IT: Hi interview.

Uriya Teherani with his private bodyguard Isaac Tawil

HU: Do you have any advice for the readers of the blog? How to be good students, be more awesome, anything?
UT: I guess in school, you probably want to be on your teacher's good side. There are people who sleep in class and get away with it, and those who get kicked out. A lot of kids in my class actually do that.
HU: One more question. Where does the '2014' in 'Uriya2014' come from?
UT: Originally it was 'Uriya2013'
HU: I remember that
UT: I did like, for the next year. Like, now it's 2013, so I did '2014.'
HU: Thank you Uriya.

Note: this is a transcription of an actual interview. The audio file is available from the Update Dept. of Records, P.O. Box 18101.